Photo: Pexels
“Hunger Games 2026” and “film Hunger Games 2026” both trended in Indonesia this weekend, and the excitement is matched in the box office forecasts. The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping, Lionsgate’s adaptation of Suzanne Collins’ 2025 novel, opens in the United States on November 20 and is tracking far ahead of its predecessor.
According to Deadline, advance ticket sales are ahead of those for Universal’s Wicked (2024) and are the best Lionsgate has seen for any film since the pandemic. The forecast floor for its US opening has been raised to US$80 million or more, up from US$60–70 million a week earlier, and prediction market Polymarket put the chance of a US$100 million-plus opening at 75 percent. For comparison, the last prequel, The Ballad of Songbirds and Snakes (2023), opened to US$44.6 million, the lowest in the franchise.
What it is about
The film is directed by Francis Lawrence, who made four of the previous five films. It goes back to the 50th Hunger Games, the “Second Quarter Quell”, and the story of a young Haymitch Abernathy, the drunken, bitter mentor of the original trilogy. The cast includes Joseph Zada as young Haymitch, Jesse Plemons, Elle Fanning as Effie Trinket, Mckenna Grace and Ralph Fiennes as President Snow.
My view: why this one is working
Three things explain the strength of the presales, and each says something about cinema in 2026.
A beloved character, not a new one. Ballad asked audiences to care about the origin of the series’ villain. Sunrise tells the backstory of a character fans already love. Prequels work best when they answer a question the audience already has: in this case, how did Haymitch become so broken?
A book people actually read. Collins’ novel was a major bestseller in 2025, and much of its readership is the same generation who grew up with Katniss in 2012. They are now adults with spending power and nostalgia.
Very little competition. Thanksgiving has no Wicked or Moana-sized rival this year. The main competition, Disney’s Hexed and Focker-in-Law, is projected at US$40–50 million each.
There is also a political reason the franchise still connects. A story about a cruel regime that turns poverty into televised entertainment feels very relevant in an age of reality TV, influencer spectacle and visible inequality. Young viewers in Indonesia, where the franchise has always been popular, recognise that.
The film is expected in Indonesian cinemas around the same time as the US release. Check XXI, CGV and Cinépolis for local dates.
Sources: Deadline; Wikipedia; Boxoffice Pro.
